China’s Strategic Initiatives:
- Five Fingers of Tibet Strategy: Represents China’s territorial claims and strategic approach, aiming to control or influence five surrounding regions, including Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh.
- String of Pearls Initiative: Involves building ports and maritime infrastructure across the Indian Ocean, including Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, Chittagong Port in Bangladesh, and Djibouti.
- Himalayan QUAD: Project involving China, Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, aiming to counterbalance the QUAD alliance.
- Growing presence in Indian Neighbourhood:
- Pakistan: Signed a 2013 memorandum for CPEC development under BRI, serving as a tool to restrain India for China.
- Sri Lanka: Received massive BRI funding, providing naval capabilities to China in the Indian Ocean. Hambantota Port acquisition bolsters China’s String of Pearls strategy. Colombo port city was termed a ‘Chinese Colony’ by experts.
- Bangladesh: Joined BRI in 2016, growing ties with China, raising concerns for India. China is the biggest trading partner of Bangladesh and is the foremost source of imports. A USD 1.21 billion submarine base has been built by China at Cox’s Bazar, which will provide safe jetty facilities to submarines and warships.
- Nepal: Joined BRI in 2017; China seeks political links while India maintains strong cultural influence. Nepali side supports the Global Development Initiative (GDI) proposed by China.
- Maldives: Under Yameen, pivoted towards China with substantial investments. Anti-India sentiment rising despite a new president. Setback in India-Maldives relations with a 2017 FTA with China. Opposition to India’s involvement, manifested in the ‘India Out’ initiative.
- Bhutan: Declined BRI partnership, maintains strong ties with India. However, despite India’s concerns, it seems that establishing diplomatic relations and signing a boundary agreement between Bhutan and China is becoming more likely.
- Afghanistan: Taliban views China as a crucial partner in reconstruction post-Taliban takeover.
Impact on India’s Diplomatic and Security Relationships
- Security Implications
- Doklam and Siliguri Corridor: A China-Bhutan border deal involving Doklam could threaten India’s access to its northeastern states via the Siliguri Corridor
- China-Pakistan Cooperation: Deepening cooperation through CPEC poses significant security challenges for India.
- China-Nepal Nexus: Increasing ties between Nepal and China reduce India’s regional influence.
- Changing Balance of Power : India must adapt to China’s growing regional influence as smaller neighboring states increasingly use the “China card,” reducing reliance on India and shifting the regional balance of power.
- Rise of China as a Geopolitical Buffer : China’s emergence provides smaller states with strategic autonomy, reducing their dependency on India and altering regional dynamics.
- Military Presence in the Indian Ocean: China’s “String of Pearls” strategy secures trade routes, enhancing regional influence and raising concerns about the implications for international trade and security.
- Dual-Use Infrastructure: BRI projects in countries like Djibouti, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh provide military and economic advantages, complicating India’s security strategies.
- Acceptance of CPEC: South Asian countries’ acceptance of CPEC signals growing Chinese influence.
- Leadership Roles in South Asia : China’s increasing Regional Acceptance challenges India’s aspiration to be the regional leader.
- Trade Dynamics: China has become the major trading partner for several South Asian countries, surpassing India in some cases:
- Maldives: China’s trade slightly exceeds India’s.
- Bangladesh: China’s trade is about twice that of India.
- Nepal and Sri Lanka: The trade gap has significantly shrunk.
China’s strategic moves in South Asia and the Indian Ocean pose significant challenges for India. By enhancing strategic partnerships, upgrading military capabilities, investing in regional infrastructure, and promoting multilateralism, India can counter China’s growing influence and maintain regional stability.
