Determinates and attributes of Indian Foreign Policy

The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and the persistence of other conflicts, including the Yemeni civil war, the Lebanese political crisis, the Syrian civil war, and the Turkey-Cyprus conflict, add to the growing instability in the Middle East.

Global Implications

Indian Implications

  1. Humanitarian Crisis: Continued military actions risk significant civilian casualties and worsen humanitarian conditions, especially in Gaza.
  2. Destabilization: The Middle East has historically been a theatre of war (e.g., Gulf War, Iraq War, Six-Day War). Prolonged conflict can destabilize the volatile West Asian region, inviting continued attacks from groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
  3. Impact on Global Supply Chains: Escalation of conflict affects oil production and disrupts global supply chains, potentially increasing inflation globally.
  4. Geopolitical Realignments: Escalation disrupts recent geopolitical realignments in the Middle East, from Israel-Arab reconciliation to Iran-Saudi détente.
  5. Threat to Permanent Peace: Recent actions diminish prospects for a two-state solution, posing a threat to durable peace in the region.
  6. Disruption of Global Connectivity: Prolonged conflict disrupts global connectivity projects like the India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) and endangers strategic supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
  7. Spread of Extremism: Ongoing conflict fuels radicalization and may give rise to extremist groups, destabilizing the region further.
  1. De-hyphenation and West Asia Policy: India faces a diplomatic challenge in navigating the conflict without alienating either side, impacting its West Asia policy.
  2. Remittances and Safety of Indian Diaspora: India hosts a large diaspora in West Asia (~90 lakh Indians). Conflict may reduce remittances and pose challenges for the safe evacuation of Indian nationals.
  3. Energy Security: West Asia supplies about 80% of India’s oil needs. Any escalation of conflict threatens India’s energy security, impacting oil supplies and prices.
  4. Endangers India’s economic growth- Escalation in oil prices due to the conflict can adversely affect India’s economic growth, increase inflation,  disrupt the balance of trade and current account deficit, consequently exerting pressure on the rupee.
  5. Defense Ties with Israel:The conflict has led to closer defense ties between India and Israel, especially as Israel seeks partners to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region.
  6. Impact on IMEC Corridor: The conflict risks derailing progress on initiatives like the India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC)

West Asia is a complex and challenging theatre for Indian diplomacy due to numerous conflicts and rivalries. 

  • Adoption of the Look West policy in 2005 reflects India’s desire for engagement with its West Asian neighbours. 

Opportunities for India in West Asia Relations

  • Trade and Investment:
    • UAE: Third-largest trading partner; second-largest export destination after the US ;  India-UAE CEPA formally launched
    • Saudi Arabia : West Coast Refinery Project (Ratnagiri) – promised USD 100 billion investment from Saudi Arabia for this project.
  • Connectivity Initiatives:
    • India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor: Announced During G20 Leaders’ Summit → a massive infrastructure project that would connect India to Europe via West Asia, and could rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It will deepen India’s strategic engagement with the Arabian peninsula. 
    • Strategic Partnerships: Projects like the Chabahar port and INSTC improve connectivity and access to energy resources.
  • Energy Security:
    • Oil Imports: Over 40% of India’s crude oil comes from West Asia; Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE are key suppliers.
  • Diaspora Contributions:
    • Indian Expatriates: Largest expatriate community in UAE; significant contributions to the UAE’s economy.
    • Remittances: Approximately $40 billion annually, with 82% from West Asia.
  • Strategic Partnerships
    • Israel: Among the top four arms suppliers to India, with sales worth around $1 billion annually.
    • UAE and Saudi Arabia: Collaboration in counter-terrorism and maritime security.
  • Diplomatic and Cultural Engagement
    • Middle East Quad (I2U2):
      • Members: India, Israel, UAE, and the USA.
      • Focus: Economic, technological, and diplomatic collaboration.
    • Cultural Diplomacy:
      • RuPay Card: Launched in Abu Dhabi to strengthen financial ties.
      • Hindu Temple in Dubai: Inaugurated as a cultural gesture to the Indian community.

Challenges for India in West Asia Relations

  • Regional Instability and Security Concerns
    • Militarization: West Asia accounts for 30% of global arms imports.
    • Ongoing Conflicts: Israel-Gaza, Iran-Israel hostilities, Syrian civil war, Yemeni civil war.
  • Impact on Indian Interests
    • Energy Security: Price volatility and supply disruptions due to regional conflicts.
    • Diaspora Safety: Risks to the large Indian expatriate community in volatile regions.
    • Economic Effects:
      • Trade Disruptions: Potential impact on trade routes and investment due to instability.
      • Higher Oil Prices: Increased costs could affect India’s current account deficit and forex reserves.
  • Strategic Balancing
    • Navigating Rivalries:
      • Iran vs. Arab States: Maintaining balanced relations amid regional rivalries.
      • US-Israel Relations: Aligning with US and Israel while managing ties with Iran.
    • Domestic Political Tensions: Relations with certain West Asian countries can cause internal political challenges.
  • Rising Chinese Influence : China’s expanding influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and alliances with countries like Iran and Pakistan.
    •  In March 2021, China also agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil to fuel its growing economy.
    • Israel’s Haifa port has been expanded by China
    • UAE was one of the first countries that got Huawei’s (A Chinese MNC) assistance for its 5g project.

Conclusion

India’s engagement with West Asia presents significant opportunities in trade, energy security, technology, and strategic partnerships. However, it also faces challenges due to regional instability, security concerns, and rising Chinese influence. By leveraging its soft power, maintaining a balanced policy, and adopting flexible and pragmatic approaches, India can navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of West Asia.

(Intro : West Asia is a land bridge which links three continents Asia, Africa and Europe. It is called the gateway of Asia-Africa and the back-door of Europe.

Conclusion : However, New Delhi is increasingly displaying strategic autonomy and a nuanced approach to safeguard core interests while maintaining regional balances.)

The recent successful hosting of the G20 on one hand, and the growing tensions with neighbors on the other hand, show the dichotomy between India’s global rise and regional decline

India’s Global Rise

Regional Decline 

  • Geopolitical Influence: hosted the G-20, attended G-7 meetings, and highlighted its Global South leadership by including the African Union in the G-20.
  • Economic Growth: India → 5th largest economy; projected growth of 7% (FY24).
  • Strategic Partnerships: engaging with Russia and China in BRICS and SCO while maintaining partnerships with the US in the Quad and Malabar groupings,
  • Rising Military Capabilities: India has modernized and indigenized its military→ INS Sahyadri, LCA Tejas, and INS Vikrant.
  • Space Technology Advancements: Achievements include launching 104 satellites in one mission (PSLV-C37), the Aditya-L1 for solar studies, and Chandrayaan-3 (soft landing).
  • Renewable Energy Leadership: India leads the International Solar Alliance and the Global Biofuel Alliance.
  • Soft Power: Recognized for non-aggression and inclusivity; global diaspora of 31 million【Global Soft Power Index】.
  • Young Demography: Expected demographic dividend until 2055, adding 2% to per capita GDP growth【IMF】.
  • Low Regional Trade: India’s trade with South Asia constitutes a small fraction of its global trade.
  • Perception of Indian Hegemony: Smaller South Asian nations perceive India’s actions as hegemonic, leading to strategies like balancing, bargaining, hedging, and bandwagoning.
  • Rising Chinese Influence: India faces growing competition from China in South Asia.
    • Maldives: China’s influence raises concerns for India-Maldives relations (e.g., “India Out” campaign).
    • Nepal: Gorkhas shifting towards China (due to Agniveer Scheme).
    • Sri Lanka: China’s influence growing, especially with Hambantota Port.
    • China’s String of Pearls strategy and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are additional concerns 
  • Strained Relations with Neighbours:
  • Border Disputes:
    • Long-standing conflicts with China (LAC) and Pakistan (LoC); disputes with Sri Lanka(Katchatheevu Island) and Nepal (Kalapani-Limpiyadhura-Lipulekh, Susta).
    • Cross-border Terrorism: India faces terrorism from groups based in Pakistan.
    • Water Disputes: Conflicts over water-sharing, especially with Pakistan (Indus Water Treaty) and Bangladesh (Ganga, Kushiyara Rivers).
    • Political Instability: Neighbours like Myanmar face instability (2021 coup), affecting regional security.
  • The concept of South Asia as a geopolitical unit is becoming outdated, reducing India’s influence in the region.

Implications for Global Aspirations

  • Instability in neighboring countries may create internal security challenges.
  • Unrest challenges India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean.
  • Losing regional influence raises questions about India’s credibility as a global power.
  • Rivalry with China may hinder cooperation for an “Asian Century”.
  • Low regional trade limits India’s export potential → hampers economic growth.
  • Balancing global ambitions with regional stability is complex.
  • Aspirations for greater representation in global governance (e.g., UN Security Council) may face opposition from regional rivals.

To meet this challenge, India must adapt its approach by revitalizing SAARC and BIMSTEC, reassessing its regional role to counter China’s influence, and engaging South Asian neighbors in Indo-Pacific strategies.

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